Behavioral and Brain Sciences
- Behavioral and Brain Sciences / Volume 32 / Issue 01 / February 2009, pp 91-91
- Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2009
- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X09000363 (About DOI), Published online: 12 February 2009
Open Peer Commentary
Complexity provides a better explanation than probability for confidence in syllogistic inferences
Graeme S. Halforda1
a1 School of Psychology, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland, 4111, Australia. g.halford@griffith.edu.au
Abstract
Bayesian rationality is an important contribution to syllogistic inference, but it has limitations. The claim that confidence in a conclusion is a function of informativeness of the max-premise is anomalous because this is the least probable premise. A more plausible account is that confidence is inversely related to complexity. Bayesian rationality should be supplemented with principles based on cognitive complexity.
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