Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union

Multi-Wavelength Investigations of Solar Activity
Contributed Papers

Kinematic Modeling of the Main Solar Cycle

Vladimir Kaftan a1
a1 Central Research Institute of Geodesy, Aerial Surveying and Cartography, Federal Agency of Geodesy and Cartography, Moscow, Russia.

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In spite of the great progress of solar physics research, complete understanding of the solar activity nature is still lacking. Although everybody can observe the obvious cyclical sunspot variation, recent models of the process can not describe it quite accurately. Thus the official forecast of the 23-rd solar cycle, mainly basing on the dynamical models and precursors, was not proved. Many official predictions considered that the cycle 23 will have an amplitude higher than the previous one. In this case statistical models were neglected as the less reliable but some of those kinematic forecasts are proved to this time. This situation makes evidence that we have to not ignore statistical approaches in the study of the solar behavior at the current stage of the knowledge.


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