Epidemiology and Infection

Table of Contents - 2004 - Volume 132, Issue 04  


Human campylobacteriosis in Scotland: seasonality, regional trends and bursts of infection

G. MILLER a1c1, G. M. DUNN a2, A. SMITH-PALMER a3, I. D. OGDEN a4 and N. J. C. STRACHAN a1
a1 School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Cruickshank Building, Aberdeen, Scotland, UK
a2 Department of Engineering, School of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Fraser Nobel Building, Aberdeen, Scotland, UK
a3 Scottish Centre for Infection and Environmental Health, Clifton House, Clifton Place, Glasgow, Scotland, UK
a4 Department of Medical Microbiology, University of Aberdeen, Foresterhill, Aberdeen, Scotland, UK

Article author query
miller g   [PubMed][Google Scholar] 
dunn g   [PubMed][Google Scholar] 
smith-palmer a   [PubMed][Google Scholar] 
ogden i   [PubMed][Google Scholar] 
strachan n   [PubMed][Google Scholar] 

Abstract

Fourier time-series models were constructed to study regional and national seasonality of human campylobacteriosis in Scotland between 1997 and 2001. Strong seasonality was demonstrated with an annual peak of reported cases in late June to early July. The prominence of this peak varied between regions, which was exemplified for the two major population centres: Lothian, with mixed urban/rural population, had a more prominent peak than Greater Glasgow, which has a predominantly urban population. No significant trend of annual cases of campylobacteriosis was found nationally and Fourier models successfully predicted the seasonal pattern of national and regional cases in 2002. During the period studied, the Fourier model identified >20 bursts of infection (potential outbreaks). Multi-regional bursts were also identified in the summers of 1998 and 2000 – the latter comprising the vast majority of the regions in Scotland, which could suggest a national outbreak.

(Accepted March 31 2004)


Correspondence:
c1 G. Miller, School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Cruickshank Building, Aberdeen, Aberdeenshire, Scotland, AB24 3UU, UK. (Email: g.miller@abdn.ac.uk)

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