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The Playing Field Shifts: Predicting the Seats-Votes Curve in the 2008 U.S. House Elections

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 October 2008

Jonathan P. Kastellec ,
Andrew Gelman  and
Jamie P. Chandler
Jonathan P. Kastellec
Affiliation:
Columbia University
Andrew Gelman
Affiliation:
Columbia University
Jamie P. Chandler
Affiliation:
City University of New York
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Extract

The 2008 U.S. House elections mark the first time since 1994 that the Democrats will seek to retain a majority. With the political climate favoring Democrats this year, it seems almost certain that the party will retain control, and will likely increase its share of seats. In five national polls taken in June of this year, Democrats enjoyed on average a 13-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot; as Bafumi, Erikson, and Wlezien (2007) point out, these early polls, suitably adjusted, are good predictors of the November vote. As of late July, bettors at intrade.com put the probability of the Democrats retaining a majority at about 95% (Intrade.com 2008). Elsewhere in this symposium, Klarner (2008) predicts an 11-seat gain for the Democrats, while Lockerbie (2008) forecasts a 25-seat pickup.

Type
Symposium
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 41 , Issue 4 , October 2008 , pp. 729 - 732
Copyright
Copyright © The American Political Science Association 2008

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References

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