Epidemiology and Infection

Table of Contents - 2008 - Volume 136, Issue 09  

Original Papers

Rotavirus infections and climate variability in Dhaka, Bangladesh: a time-series analysis

M. HASHIZUMEa1a2 c1, B. ARMSTRONGa2, Y. WAGATSUMAa3, A. S. G. FARUQUEa4, T. HAYASHIa5 and D. A. SACKa4

a1 Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan

a2 London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK

a3 Graduate School of Comprehensive Human Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan

a4 International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh

a5 Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan

SUMMARY

Attempts to explain the clear seasonality of rotavirus infections have been made by relating disease incidence to climate factors; however, few studies have disentangled the effects of weather from other factors that might cause seasonality. We investigated the relationships between hospital visits for rotavirus diarrhoea and temperature, humidity and river level, in Dhaka, Bangladesh, using time-series analysis adjusting for other confounding seasonal factors. There was strong evidence for an increase in rotavirus diarrhoea at high temperatures, by 40·2% for each 1°C increase above a threshold (29°C). Relative humidity had a linear inverse relationship with the number of cases of rotavirus diarrhoea. River level, above a threshold (4·8 m), was associated with an increase in cases of rotavirus diarrhoea, by 5·5% per 10-cm river-level rise. Our findings provide evidence that factors associated with high temperature, low humidity and high river-level increase the incidence of rotavirus diarrhoea in Dhaka.

(Accepted September 17 2007)

(Online publication November 08 2007)

Correspondence:

c1 Author for correspondence: Dr M. Hashizume, Research Center for Tropical Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Sakamoto 1-12-4, Nagasaki City, Nagasaki 852-8523, Japan. (Email: hashizum@nagasaki-u.ac.jp)

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