American Political Science Review

Research Article

Design, Inference, and the Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism

SCOTT ASHWORTHa1 c1, JOSHUA D. CLINTONa1 c2, ADAM MEIROWITZa1 c3 and KRISTOPHER W. RAMSAYa1 c4

a1 Princeton University

Abstract

In “The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism,” Robert Pape (2003) presents an analysis of his suicide terrorism data. He uses the data to draw inferences about how territorial occupation and religious extremism affect the decision of terrorist groups to use suicide tactics. We show that the data are incapable of supporting Pape's conclusions because he “samples on the dependent variable.”—The data only contain cases in which suicide terror is used. We construct bounds (Manski, 1995) on the quantities relevant to Pape's hypotheses and show exactly how little can be learned about the relevant statistical associations from the data produced by Pape's research design.

Correspondence:

c1 Scott Ashworth is Assistant Professor of Politics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 (sashwort@princeton.edu).

c2 Joshua D. Clinton is Assistant Professor of Politics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 (clinton@princeton.edu).

c3 Adam Meirowitz is Associate Professor of Politics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 (ameirowi@princeton.edu).

c4 Kristopher W. Ramsay is Assistant Professor of Politics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 (kramsay@princeton.edu).

Footnotes

We thank Larry Bartels, Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, Joanne Gowa, Kosuke Imai and Jay Lyall for helpful comments.

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