ARTICLES

The Contribution of Economists to Military Intelligence During World War II

MARK GUGLIELMO^a1

^a1 Senior Research Associate, Center for Population Economics, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago, 5807 S. Woodlawn, Ste. 369, Chicago, Illinois 60637. E-mail: markg@cpe.uchicago.edu.

Abstract

Economists played a crucial role in military intelligence during World War II. Economists working at the Office of Strategic Services estimated enemy battle casualties, analyzed the intentions and capabilities of both enemies and allies, and helped to prepare for negotiations regarding the postwar settlement. Economists working at the Enemy Objectives Unit helped to select enemy targets for bombing. Finally, economists working at the Statistical Research Group worked on a variety of problems brought to them by the U.S. military services. As a consequence of their usefulness during the war, the military continued to employ economists after the war.

Footnotes

I have benefited from helpful comments by Jeremy Atack, Louis P. Cain, Robert W. Fogel, Milton Friedman, Barry M. Katz, Carl Kaysen, John Lyons, Michael Perelman, Lester G. Telser, Roger Sandilands and two anonymous referees. I have also benefited from the comments of participants in the Workshop in Applied Price Theory at the University of Chicago, the Workshop in Economic History at Northwestern University, workshops in the Economics Department at the University of Illinois at Chicago and at the Center for Population Economics at the University of Chicago, and the 2003 History of Economics Annual Meeting at Duke University. Any errors remain, of course, my own. I am grateful to Robert W. and Enid M. Fogel for making available interviews they conducted with Moses Abramovitz, Abram Bergson, Milton and Rose Friedman, John Kenneth Galbraith, Carl Kaysen, Charles P. Kindleberger, and Richard Ruggles. I also thank A. J. Aiseirithe for her excellent editorial assistance and Noelle Yetter and her staff at the Vienna, Virginia office of the Center for Population Economics for obtaining the records of the Office of Strategic Services records the U.S. National Archives.