Behavioral and Brain Sciences

Open Peer Commentary

From base-rate to cumulative respect

C. Philip Beamana1 and Rachel McCloya1

a1 Department of Psychology, University of Reading – Earley Gate, Whiteknights, Reading RG6 6AL, United Kingdom. c.p.beaman@reading.ac.uk http://www.personal.rdg.ac.uk/~sxs98cpb/philip_beaman.htm r.a.mccloy@reading.ac http://www.psychology.rdg.ac.uk/people/lecturing/Dr_Rachel_McCloy.php

Abstract

The tendency to neglect base-rates in judgment under uncertainty may be “notorious,” as Barbey & Sloman (B&S) suggest, but it is neither inevitable (as they document; see also Koehler 1996) nor unique. Here we would like to point out another line of evidence connecting ecological rationality to dual processes, the failure of individuals to appropriately judge cumulative probability.

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