Epidemiology and Infection

Research Article

Plague metapopulation dynamics in a natural reservoir: the burrow system as the unit of study

S. DAVISa1 c1, N. KLASSOVSKIYa2, V. AGEYEVa2, B. SULEIMENOVa2, B. ATSHABARa2, A. KLASSOVSKAYAa2, M. BENNETTa3, H. LEIRSa1a4 and M. BEGONa3

a1 Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium

a2 The Kazakh Scientific Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, Almaty, Kazakhstan

a3 The University of Liverpool, UK

a4 Danish Pest Infestation Laboratory, Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Integrated Pest Management, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark

SUMMARY

The ecology of plague (Yersinia pestis infection) in its ancient foci in Central Asia remains poorly understood. We present field data from two sites in Kazakhstan where the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) is the major natural host. Family groups inhabit and defend burrow systems spaced throughout the landscape, such that the host population may be considered a metapopulation, with each occupied burrow system a subpopulation. We examine plague transmission within and between family groups and its effect on survival. Transmission of plague occurred disproportionately within family groups although not all gerbils became infected once plague entered a burrow system. There were no spatial patterns to suggest that family groups in close proximity to infected burrow systems were more at risk of infection than those far away. At one site, infection increased the chances of burrow-system extinction. Overall, it is useful to consider the burrow system as the unit of study within a much larger metapopulation.

(Accepted October 04 2006)

(Online publication December 07 2006)

Correspondence:

c1 *Author for correspondence: Dr S. Davis, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Utrecht, Theoretical Epidemiology, Yalelaan 7, 3584 CL Utrecht, The Netherlands. (Email: S.A.Davis@vet.uu.nl)

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