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The Homeland Security Dilemma: Imagination, Failure and the Escalating Costs of Perfecting Security

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 June 2007

Frank P. Harvey
Affiliation:
State University of New York (Plattsburgh) and Dalhousie University

Abstract

Abstract. Besieged by insurgencies in Afghanistan and Iraq and gripped by mounting pressure to enhance security and public safety at home, officials in Washington and Ottawa are now confronted with a serious homeland security dilemma: the greater the financial costs, public sacrifice and political capital invested in security, the higher the public's expectations and corresponding standards for measuring performance, the more significant the public's sense of insecurity after each failure, and, paradoxically, the higher the pressure on governments and citizens to sacrifice even more to achieve perfect security. The paradox of security dilemmas at the international level (Jervis, 1976, 1978) explains why perfectly rational decisions to enhance power actually diminish security by promoting unstable spirals in competitive defence spending—a common account of escalating military budgets throughout much of the Cold War. The homeland security dilemma represents the post-9/11 equivalent for domestic politics in the war on terrorism. The paper's central argument can be summed up by the following counterintuitive thesis: the more security you have, the more security you will need, not because enhancing security makes terrorism more likely (although the incentive for terrorists to attack may increase as extremists feel duty bound to demonstrate their ongoing relevance), but because enormous investments in security inevitably raise public expectations and amplify public outrage after subsequent failures.

Résumé. Assaillies par des insurrections en Afghanistan et en Irak et bousculées par la pression de plus en plus grande d'améliorer le système de sécurité publique à l'intérieur du pays, les autorités de Washington et d'Ottawa se trouvent confrontées à un sérieux dilemme en ce qui concerne la sécurité intérieure : plus les coûts financiers, les sacrifices publics et le capital politique investis dans la sécurité sont importants, plus les attentes du public et les standards de mesure du rendement correspondants sont élevés, plus le sentiment général d'insécurité augmente après chaque échec, et, paradoxalement, plus la pression sur les gouvernements et les citoyens de faire des sacrifices encore plus lourds pour parvenir à une parfaite sécurité s'intensifie. Le paradoxe du dilemme sécuritaire au niveau international (Jervis, 1976, 1978) explique pourquoi des décisions parfaitement rationnelles prises pour renforcer le pouvoir réduisent en fait la sécurité en encourageant des spirales instables de dépenses militaires concurrentielles—voir l'escalade des budgets militaires pendant la guerre froide. Le dilemme de la sécurité intérieure en est l'équivalent en politique nationale, depuis le 11 septembre, dans le contexte de la guerre contre le terrorisme. L'argument principal de cet article peut se résumer par la thèse contre-intuitive qui suit : plus on a de sécurité, plus il en faut. Pas parce que le renforcement de la sécurité rend le terrorisme plus probable (bien que la motivation des terroristes risque de s'exaspérer quand les extrémistes se sentent obligés de démontrer que leur pertinence perdure), mais parce que des investissements massifs dans la sécurité augmentent inévitablement les attentes et que l'opinion se scandalise encore davantage de tout échec subséquent.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© 2007 Cambridge University Press

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