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Spatio-temporal patterns of IED usage by the Provisional Irish Republican Army

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2016

STEPHEN TENCH ,
HANNAH FRY  and
PAUL GILL
STEPHEN TENCH
Affiliation:
UCL Jill Dando Institute of Security and Crime Science, 35 Tavistock Square, WC1H 9EZ, London, UK email: stephen.tench.13@ucl.ac.uk, paul.gill@ucl.ac.uk UCL Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, 90 Tottenham Court Road, W1T 4TJ, London, UK email: hannah.fry@ucl.ac.uk
HANNAH FRY
Affiliation:
UCL Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, 90 Tottenham Court Road, W1T 4TJ, London, UK email: hannah.fry@ucl.ac.uk
PAUL GILL
Affiliation:
UCL Jill Dando Institute of Security and Crime Science, 35 Tavistock Square, WC1H 9EZ, London, UK email: stephen.tench.13@ucl.ac.uk, paul.gill@ucl.ac.uk
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Abstract

In this paper, a unique dataset of improvised explosive device attacks during “The Troubles” in Northern Ireland (NI) is analysed via a Hawkes process model. It is found that this past dependent model is a good fit to improvised explosive device attacks yielding key insights about the nature of terrorism in NI. We also present a novel approach to quantitatively investigate some of the sociological theory surrounding the Provisional Irish Republican Army which challenges previously held assumptions concerning changes seen in the organisation. Finally, we extend our use of the Hawkes process model by considering a multidimensional version which permits both self and mutual-excitations. This allows us to test how the Provisional Irish Republican Army responded to past improvised explosive device attacks on different geographical scales from which we find evidence for the autonomy of the organisation over the six counties of NI and Belfast. By incorporating a second dataset concerning British Security Force (BSF) interventions, the multidimensional model allows us to test counter-terrorism (CT) operations in NI where we find subsequent increases in violence.

Keywords

Point processHawkes processChange pointTerrorismCounter-terrorismNorthern IrelandProvisional Irish Republican Army
Type
Papers
Information
European Journal of Applied Mathematics , Volume 27 , Issue 3: Mathematical Modelling of Crime and Security , June 2016 , pp. 377 - 402
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2016 

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