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When does the turning point in China's CO2 emissions occur? Results based on the Green Solow model

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 February 2015

Yu Hao  and
Yi-Ming Wei
Yu Hao
Affiliation:
Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology; and School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China. E-mail: haoyuking@bit.edu.cn
Yi-Ming Wei
Affiliation:
Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, 5 South Zhongguanccun Street, Haidian District, Beijing 100081, China; and School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China. Tel/Fax: 86-10-68911706. E-mail: wei@bit.edu.cn
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Abstract

In recent years, the surge in China's CO2 emissions has caused increasing international concern. In this paper, we investigate whether and when the turning point in China's CO2 emissions would occur. A simple yet powerful neoclassical Green Solow model (GSM) is utilized herein as the main forecasting tool. To verify the capability of this framework to address China's economy, a key prediction of the GSM – the convergence in per capita CO2 emissions across Chinese provinces – is empirically verified. By assigning reasonable values to the GSM's key parameters, the trajectories of total CO2 emissions are projected for the three regions of China and the whole country. The forecast results show that, under the benchmark scenario, China's total CO2 emissions would peak around the year 2047. According to the sensitivity analysis, carbon efficiency is the most important determining factor for whether a turning point in total CO2 emissions may occur.

Type
Research Article
Information
Environment and Development Economics , Volume 20 , Issue 6 , December 2015 , pp. 723 - 745
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2015 

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