a1 College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China
a2 Hunan Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China
a3 School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, China
a4 Changsha Municipal Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China
a5 Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing, China
The transmission of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by climatic, reservoir and environmental variables. The epidemiology of the disease was studied over a 6-year period in Changsha. Variables relating to climate, environment, rodent host distribution and disease occurrence were collected monthly and analysed using a time-series adjusted Poisson regression model. It was found that the density of the rodent host and multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation index had the greatest effect on the transmission of HFRS with lags of 2–6 months. However, a number of climatic and environmental factors played important roles in affecting the density and transmission potential of the rodent host population. It was concluded that the measurement of a number of these variables could be used in disease surveillance to give useful advance warning of potential disease epidemics.
(Received May 02 2012)
(Revised September 24 2012)
(Accepted October 21 2012)
(Online publication November 19 2012)
c1 Author for correspondence: Dr H. Y. Tian or Dr H. Xiao, College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China. (Email: [email protected]) [H. Y. Tian] (Email: [email protected]) [H. Xiao]
† These authors contributed equally to this work.