Epidemiology and Infection

Original Papers

Salmonella, Campylobacter

Climate variations and salmonellosis in northwest Russia: a time-series analysis

A. M. GRJIBOVSKIa1a2 c1, V. BUSHUEVAa3, V. P. BOLTENKOVa3, R. V. BUZINOVa3, G. N. DEGTEVAa4, E. D. YURASOVAa5 and J. NURSEa6

a1 Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway

a2 International School of Public Health, Northern State Medical University, Arkhangelsk, Russia

a3 Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing in the Arkhangelsk Region, Arkhangelsk, Russia

a4 Institute of Polar Medicine, Northern State Medical University, Arkhangelsk, Russia

a5 WHO Office in the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia

a6 WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, Rome Office, Rome, Italy

SUMMARY

Associations between monthly counts of all laboratory-confirmed cases of salmonellosis in Arkhangelsk, northern Russia, from 1992 to 2008 and climatic variables with lags 0–2 were studied by three different models. We observed a linear association between the number of cases of salmonellosis and mean monthly temperature with a lag of 1 month across the whole range of temperatures. An increase of 1 °C was associated with a 2·04% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0·25–3·84], 1·84% (95% CI 0·06–3·63) and 2·32% (95% CI 0·38–4·27) increase in different models. Only one of the three models suggested an increase in the number of cases, by 0·24% (95% CI 0·02–0·46) with an increase in precipitation by 1 mm in the same month. Higher temperatures were associated with higher monthly counts of salmonellosis while the association with precipitation was less certain. The results may have implications for the future patterns of enteric infections in northern areas related to climate change.

(Received November 04 2011)

(Revised February 22 2012)

(Accepted March 08 2012)

(Online publication April 04 2012)

Key words

  • Climate – impact of;
  • salmonellosis

Correspondence:

c1 Author for correspondence: Professor A. M. Grjibovski, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Postbox 4404 Nydalen, 0403 Oslo, Norway. (Email: andrei.grjibovski@fhi.no)

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