Epidemiology and Infection

Table of Contents - December 2012 - Volume 140, Issue 12  

Original Papers

Hepatitis

Estimating the variability in the risk of infection for hepatitis C in the Glasgow injecting drug user population

A. J. SUTTONa1 c1, S. A. McDONALDa2a3, N. PALMATEERa2, A. TAYLORa4 and S. J. HUTCHINSONa2a3

a1 Health Economics Unit, Public Health Building, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK

a2 Health Protection Scotland, Glasgow, UK

a3 Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK

a4 Institute for Applied Social and Health Research, University of the West of Scotland, Paisley, UK

SUMMARY

Glasgow (Scotland's largest city) has a high prevalence of injecting drug use and has one of the highest prevalences of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in injecting drug users (IDUs) in Western Europe. HCV prevalence data from surveys of Glasgow's IDUs from 1990 to 2007 were utilized and a model was applied that described the prevalence of HCV as a function of the rate (force) of infection. Force-of-infection estimates for HCV that may vary over time and injecting career length over a range of variables were investigated. New initiates to injecting were found to be at increased risk of HCV infection, with being recruited from a street location and reporting injecting in prison leading to a significant increase in the risk of infection in new initiates. These results indicate areas of importance for the planning of public health measures that target the IDU population.

(Received November 02 2011)

(Revised January 17 2012)

(Accepted February 29 2012)

(Online publication March 30 2012)

Key words

  • Hepatitis C;
  • incidence;
  • infectious disease;
  • injecting drug users (IDUs);
  • mathematical modelling

Correspondence:

c1 Author for correspondence: Dr A. J. Sutton, Health Economics Unit, Public Health Building, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK. (Email: A.J.Sutton@bham.ac.uk)

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