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The 2010 Elections: Why Did Political Science Forecasts Go Awry?

David W. Bradya1, Morris P. Fiorinaa2 and Arjun S. Wilkinsa3

a1 Stanford University

a2 Stanford University

a3 Stanford University

In President Obama's words, the Democratic Party experienced a “shellacking” in the 2010 elections. In particular, the net loss of 63 House seats was the biggest midterm loss suffered by a party since 1938—the largest in the lifetimes of approximately 93% of the American population.

David W. Brady is the Davies Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and the McCoy Professor of Political Science at Stanford University. He can be reached at dbrady@stanford.edu.

Morris P. Fiorina is the Wendt Family Professor of Political Science at Stanford University and a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He can be reached at mfiorina@stanford.com.

Arjun S. Wilkins is a Ph.D. candidate in political science at Stanford University. He can be reached at arjunw@stanford.com.

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