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Compliance among weak states: Africa and the counter-terrorism regime

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 July 2010

Abstract

This article examines levels of compliance with the counter-terrorism regime in Africa, where weak states might have been expected to conform. Instead, even under American pressure, some governments have seized the anti-terrorism rhetoric while others have been more reluctant. A comparative analysis of Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda demonstrates that domestic political factors largely explain this variation; compliance is highest in countries with the least democratic institutions and minimal mobilisation of domestic constituencies. Aid dependence and the perception of a terrorist threat also play a role. To the extent that popular pressures in transitional democracies reduce compliance, the article raises questions about the legitimacy and effectiveness of the counter-terrorism regime.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © British International Studies Association 2010

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References

1 At the time this article was accepted for publication in November 2008, the counter-terrorism policies of the Bush administration were collectively known as the ‘War on Terror’. Since then, the Obama administration has stopped using that term, choosing instead the label ‘overseas contingency operations’. The counter-terrorism strategies pursued by the Obama administration are not significantly different from those of its predecessor, however, particularly in the region under consideration here (Africa).

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15 See Karthika Sasikumar's article in this issue.

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50 Admittedly, the selection of these countries is not random; I have conducted field research in both Kenya and Tanzania and visited Uganda on multiple occasions.

51 There is some question as to whether this heightened American attention to Muslims in East Africa is warranted. There is little evidence that Islamic radicalism has gained much support in the region, and the recent mobilisation of the Muslim communities in Kenya and Tanzania is motivated primarily by local concerns (political inclusion, economic development, etc.), not by global ideologies. See Haynes, Jeffrey, ‘Islamic Militancy in East Africa’, Third World Quarterly, 26:8 (2005), pp. 13211339CrossRefGoogle Scholar ; Rosenau, William, ‘Al Qaida Recruitment Trends in Kenya and Tanzania’, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 28 (2005), pp. 110CrossRefGoogle Scholar ; Ousman, Abdelkérim, ‘The Potential of Islamist Terrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa’, International Journal of Politics, Culture and Society, 18:1 (2004), pp. 65105CrossRefGoogle Scholar ; Rüdiger Seesemann, ‘East African Muslims after 9/11’, Bayreuth African Studies Working Papers, no. 3 (2005); Becker, Felicitas, ‘Rural Islamism during the ‘War on Terror’: A Tanzanian Case Study’, African Affairs, 105:421 (2006), pp. 583603CrossRefGoogle Scholar .

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53 Stiles and Thayne, ‘Compliance with International Law’.

54 See Uganda's 2002 report to the CTC found via the committee's website at: {http://www.un.org/sc/ctc/}.

55 The Monitor (28 March 2007).

56 New Vision (31 March 2010).

57 See, for example, the text of Museveni's speech at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, DC, on 14 May 2002, available at: {http://www.wilsoncenter.org}.

58 This list is distinct from but issued along with the list of Designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations, which are identified through a more complex process involving the US Treasury Department.

59 Per the terms of the USA Patriot Act of 2001, US immigration authorities can block entrance to the country and/or deport people with known connections to groups on the Terrorist Exclusion List.

60 LRA leaders argued that they should be removed from the US list of terrorist groups so that their supporters could travel freely to peace negotiations. Daily Monitor (27 April 2007).

61 OECD data can be accessed through the International Development Statistics database at: {www.oecd.org}.

62 The vast majority of US aid to Uganda is economic assistance; military assistance was just US $2.3 million out of US $275 million total in 2005. Data is available from ‘The Greenbook’ of the US Agency for International Development at: {http://gbk.eads.usaidallnet.gov/index.html}.

63 Scores range from −10 (full autocracy) to +10 (full democracy).

64 On a scale from 1 (most democratic) to 7 (most authoritarian), countries with an average political rights/civil liberties score of 3.0 to 5.0 are considered partly free. Countries with a lower average score are free, and those with a higher average score are not free.

65 In 2005, Museveni pushed through a constitutional amendment that allowed him to run for a third term the following year.

66 Piombo raises doubts about the political will of African leaders to pass AML/CTF legislation when their basis for power often involves illicit financial activities. See Piombo, Jessica, ‘Terrorist Financing and Government Responses in East Africa’, in Giraldo, Jeanne K. and Trinkunas, Harold A. (eds), Terrorism Financing and State Responses: A Comparative Perspective (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2007)Google Scholar .

67 Worried about the possibility of politically-motivated charges, the Bush administration pushed governments around the world to sign agreements that they would not bring charges against US nationals before the ICC. Several countries, including Kenya and Tanzania, lost some portion of economic and military assistance from the US for their refusal to sign. In 2007, however, as Pentagon officials warned the White House that this approach was undermining US cooperation with the same countries in the ‘War on Terror’, waivers were signed to restore funding. The Obama administration has stopped asking countries to sign bilateral immunity agreements, but has not yet signed onto the ICC.

68 Uganda received US $1.5 billion and Kenya got about US $943 million in 2006. These numbers are from OECD statistics available online at: {www.oecd.org}.

69 Each president basically serves two five-year terms and then steps down in favour of the next CCM candidate.

70 Even with irregularities in recent elections in Zanzibar, there is little doubt that the CCM won overall.

71 The law's nickname was a direct reference to then US Attorney General John Ashcroft.

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74 In fact, the CTED's second-ever country visit was to Kenya in May 2005 to discuss these issues.

75 Whitaker, ‘Reluctant Partners’.

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79 The officially-announced results of the December 2007 elections in Kenya showed Kibaki narrowly winning re-election, while many ministers and members of parliament from his party were defeated. Significant irregularities in the vote-counting process led to charges of rigging and widespread violence during which more than 1,300 Kenyans were killed and approximately 300,000 were displaced. At the end of February 2008, through the mediation efforts of former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, Kibaki and the main opposition candidate, Raila Odinga, reached a power-sharing agreement that was still holding (though at times just barely) by early 2010.

80 Multiparty elections were held in 1992 and 1997, but state-sponsored violence and other machinations prevented them from being free and fair.

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84 There has been some public support for proposed AML legislation, though little among members of parliament. As Piombo argues, stricter financial regulations may affect the illicit activities of many Kenyan politicians. See Piombo, ‘Terrorist Financing and Government Responses in East Africa’.

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86 For further discussion on the tension between democracy promotion and counter-terrorism, both of which were explicit goals of US foreign policy under the Bush administration, see Whitaker, ‘Exporting the Patriot Act?’ and Whitaker, ‘Reluctant Partners’.