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Nuclear Power Reactors: A Study in Technological Lock-in

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 March 2009

Robin Cowan
Affiliation:
Assistant Professor of Economics, New York University, 269 Mercer Street, New York, NY 10003.

Abstract

Recent theory has predicted that if competing technologies operate under dynamic increasing returns, one, possibly inferior, technology will dominate the market. The history of nuclear power technology is used to illustrate these results. Light water is considered inferior to other technologies, yet it dominates the market for power reactors. This is largely due to the early adoption and heavy development by the U.S. Navy of light water for submarine propulsion. When a market for civilian power emerged, light water had a large head start, and by the time other technologies were ready to enter the market, light water was entrenched.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © The Economic History Association 1990

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References

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52 Ibid., p. 70.

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65 Ibid., p. 28.

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70 Bupp and Derian, Light Water, are also convinced that the current dominance by light water is due to its early acceptance in the United States, and subsequent rapid spread into Europe. They emphasize, however, the way in which reactors were built largely on expectations of future performance. Many reactors were ordered based on the claims of manufacturers that the next, bigger generation had achieved enormous cost reductions. These claims turned out to be far from true. The degree to which orders (both in the United States and Europe) preceded experience is astounding. In 1968, for example, the largest light water reactor that had been operating for a year or more was 200 MW. In contrast the mean size of reactor ordered that year was 926 MW (see figure 4–1, p. 73). This sort of advertising (and to be fair, the willingness to accept it) generated enough light water orders, that, again, other technologies were left behind.Google Scholar