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Complexity provides a better explanation than probability for confidence in syllogistic inferences

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 February 2009

Graeme S. Halford
Affiliation:
School of Psychology, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland, 4111, Australia. g.halford@griffith.edu.au

Abstract

Bayesian rationality is an important contribution to syllogistic inference, but it has limitations. The claim that confidence in a conclusion is a function of informativeness of the max-premise is anomalous because this is the least probable premise. A more plausible account is that confidence is inversely related to complexity. Bayesian rationality should be supplemented with principles based on cognitive complexity.

Type
Open Peer Commentary
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2009

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References

Halford, G. S., Cowan, N. & Andrews, G. (2007) Separating cognitive capacity from knowledge: A new hypothesis. Trends in Cognitive Sciences 11(6):236–42.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
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