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Simulating regional climate-adaptive field cropping with fuzzy logic management rules and genetic advance

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 May 2015

P. PARKER*
Affiliation:
Institute of Farm and Agribusiness Management, Justus-Liebig-University Gießen, 35390 Gießen, Germany Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
J. INGWERSEN
Affiliation:
Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation (310), University of Hohenheim, 70593 Stuttgart, Germany
P. HÖGY
Affiliation:
Institute of Landscape and Plant Ecology (320), University of Hohenheim, 70593 Stuttgart, Germany
E. PRIESACK
Affiliation:
Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Institute of Soil Ecology, 85764 Oberschleissheim, Germany
J. AURBACHER
Affiliation:
Institute of Farm and Agribusiness Management, Justus-Liebig-University Gießen, 35390 Gießen, Germany
*
*To whom all correspondence should be addressed. Email: phillip.parker@zalf.de

Summary

Agriculture is a largely technical endeavour involving complicated managerial decision-making that affects crop performance. Farm-level modelling integrates crop models with agent behaviour to account for farmer decision-making and complete the representation of agricultural systems. To replicate an important part of agriculture in Central Europe a crop model was calibrated for a unique region's predominant crops: winter wheat, winter and spring barley, silage maize and winter rapeseed. Their cultivation was then simulated over multiple decades at daily resolution to test validity and stability, while adding the dimension of agent behaviour in relation to environmental and economic conditions. After validation against regional statistics, simulated future weather scenarios were used to forecast crop management and performance under anticipated global change. Farm management and crop genetics were treated as adaptive variables in the milieu of shifting climatic conditions to allow projections of agriculture in the study region into the coming decades.

Type
Climate Change and Agriculture Research Papers
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2015 

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References

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