Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-t5pn6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-19T02:31:16.964Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Illusion of Democratic Credibility

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 July 2012

Alexander B. Downes  and
Todd S. Sechser
Alexander B. Downes
Affiliation:
George Washington University, Washington, DC. E-mail: downes@gwu.edu
Todd S. Sechser
Affiliation:
University of Virginia, Charlottesville, and the Council on Foreign Relations. E-mail: tsechser@virginia.edu
Get access

Abstract

Do democracies make more effective coercive threats? An influential literature in international relations argues that democratic institutions allow leaders to credibly signal their resolve in crises, thereby making their threats more likely to work than threats by nondemocracies. This article revisits the quantitative evidence for this proposition, which we call the “democratic credibility hypothesis,” and finds that it is surprisingly weak. Close examination of the data sets most commonly used to test this hypothesis reveals that they contain few successful democratic threats, or indeed threats of any kind. Moreover, these data sets' outcome variables do not properly measure the effectiveness of threats, and therefore yield misleading results. The article then reassesses the democratic credibility hypothesis using the Militarized Compellent Threats data set, a new data set designed specifically to test hypotheses about the effectiveness of coercive threats. The analysis indicates that threats from democracies are no more successful than threats from other states.

Type
Research Article
Information
International Organization , Volume 66 , Issue 3 , July 2012 , pp. 457 - 489
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2012

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Art, Robert J., and Cronin, Patrick M., eds. 2003. The United States and Coercive Diplomacy. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace.Google Scholar
Bennett, D. Scott, and Stam, Allan C.. 2000. A Universal Test of an Expected Utility Theory of War. International Studies Quarterly 44 (3):451–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boix, Carles, and Rosato, Sebastian. 2001. A Complete Data Set of Political Regimes, 1800–1999. Unpublished manuscript, University of Chicago.Google Scholar
Brambor, Thomas, Clark, William Roberts, and Golder, Matt. 2006. Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses. Political Analysis 14 (1):63–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Braumoeller, Bear F. 2004. Hypothesis Testing and Multiplicative Interaction Terms. International Organization 58 (4):807–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brecher, Michael, and Wilkenfeld, Jonathan. 1997. A Study of Crisis. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, Jonathan N., and Marcum, Anthony. 2011. Avoiding Audience Costs: Domestic Political Accountability and Concessions in Crisis Diplomacy. Security Studies 20 (2):141–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cheibub, José Antonio, Gandhi, Jennifer, and Vreeland, James Raymond. 2010. Democracy and Dictatorship Revisited. Public Choice 143 (1-2):67–101.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clare, Joe. 2007. Domestic Audiences and Strategic Interests. Journal of Politics 69 (3):732–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Correlates of War 2 Project. 2004. Dispute Narratives—MID 3.0 Dataset. Unpublished manuscript, Pennsylvania State University, State College.Google Scholar
Danilovic, Vesna. 2002. When the Stakes Are High: Deterrence and Conflict Among Major Powers. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Desch, Michael C. 2008. Power and Military Effectiveness: The Fallacy of Democratic Triumphalism. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Downes, Alexander B. 2009. How Smart and Tough Are Democracies? Reassessing Theories of Democratic Victory in War. International Security 33 (4):9–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eyerman, Joe, and Hart, Robert A. Jr. 1996. An Empirical Test of the Audience Cost Proposition: Democracy Speaks Louder Than Words. Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (4):597–616.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fang, Songying. 2008. The Informational Role of International Institutions and Domestic Politics. American Journal of Political Science 52 (2):304–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1994. Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes. American Political Science Review 88 (3):577–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1995. Rationalist Explanations for War. International Organization 49 (3):379–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1997. Signaling Foreign Policy Interests: Tying Hands Versus Sinking Costs. Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (1):68–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Finel, Bernard I., and Lord, Kristin M.. 1999. The Surprising Logic of Transparency. International Studies Quarterly 43 (2):315–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelpi, Christopher, and Griesdorf, Michael. 2001. Winners or Losers? Democracies in International Crisis, 1918–94. American Political Science Review 95 (3):633–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guisinger, Alexandra, and Smith, Alastair. 2002. Honest Threats: The Interaction of Reputation and Political Institutions in International Crises. Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 (2):175–200.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haynes, Kyle. Forthcoming. Lame Ducks and Coercive Diplomacy: Do Executive Term Limits Reduce the Effectiveness of Democratic Threats? Journal of Conflict Resolution.Google Scholar
Huth, Paul K., and Russett, Bruce. 1984. What Makes Deterrence Work? Cases from 1900 to 1980. World Politics 36 (4):496–526.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huth, Paul K., and Russett, Bruce. 1990. Testing Deterrence Theory: Rigor Makes a Difference. World Politics 42 (4):466–501.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Indian Ministry of External Affairs. 1959. Notes, Memoranda and Letters Exchanged and Agreements Signed by the Governments of India and China, Volume I: 1954–1959. New Delhi, India: Indian Ministry of External Affairs.Google Scholar
Jaggers, Keith, and Gurr, Ted Robert. 1995. Tracking Democracy's Third Wave with the Polity III Data. Journal of Peace Research 32 (4):469–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jones, Daniel M., Bremer, Stuart A., and Singer, J. David. 1996. Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816–1992: Rationale, Coding Rules, and Empirical Patterns. Conflict Management and Peace Science 15 (2):163–213.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Juhász, Gyula. 1979. Hungarian Foreign Policy 1919–1945. Budapest: Akadémiai Kiadó.Google Scholar
King, Gary, Keohane, Robert O., and Verba, Sidney. 1994. Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, Gary, Tomz, Michael, and Wittenberg, Jason. 2000. Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation. American Journal of Political Science 44 (2):347–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kuhn, Thomas S. 1962. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Lebow, Richard Ned, and Stein, Janice Gross. 1990. Deterrence: The Elusive Dependent Variable. World Politics 42 (3):336–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lipson, Charles. 2003. Reliable Partners: How Democracies Have Made a Separate Peace. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Lyall, Jason. 2010. Do Democracies Make Inferior Counterinsurgents? Reassessing Democracy's Impact on War Outcomes and Duration. International Organization 64 (1):167–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D., Milner, Helen V., and Rosendorff, B. Peter. 2002. Why Democracies Cooperate More: Electoral Control and International Trade Agreements. International Organization 56 (3):477–513.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D., and Snyder, Jack. 2005. Electing to Fight: Why Emerging Democracies Go to War. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martin, Lisa L. 2000. Democratic Commitments: Legislatures and International Cooperation. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
McDougall, Walter A. 1978. France's Rhineland Diplomacy, 1914–1924: The Last Bid for a Balance of Power in Europe. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Merom, Gil. 2003. How Democracies Lose Small Wars. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Narang, Vipin, and Nelson, Rebecca M.. 2009. Who Are These Belligerent Democratizers? Reassessing the Impact of Democratization on War. International Organization 63 (2):357–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Partell, Peter J. 1997. Executive Constraints and Success in International Crises. Political Research Quarterly 50 (3):503–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Partell, Peter J., and Palmer, Glenn. 1999. Audience Costs and Interstate Crises: An Empirical Assessment of Fearon's Model of Dispute Outcomes. International Studies Quarterly 43 (2):389–406.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pemstein, Daniel, Meserve, Stephen A., and Melton, James. 2010. Democratic Compromise: A Latent Variable Analysis of Ten Measures of Regime Type. Political Analysis 18 (4):426–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Popper, Karl R. 1959. The Logic of Scientific Discovery. London: Hutchinson.Google Scholar
Pregibon, Daryl. 1981. Logistic Regression Diagnostics. Annals of Statistics 9 (4):705–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Prins, Brandon C. 2003. Institutional Instability and the Credibility of Audience Costs: Political Participation and Interstate Crisis Bargaining, 1816–1992. Journal of Peace Research 40 (1):67–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Przeworski, Adam, Alvarez, Michael E., Cheibub, José Antonio, and Limongi, Fernando. 2000. Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950–1990. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ramsay, Kristopher W. 2004. Politics at the Water's Edge: Crisis Bargaining and Electoral Competition. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (4):459–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reiter, Dan, and Stam, Allan C.. 2002. Democracies at War. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rioux, Jean-Sébastien. 1998. A Crisis-Based Evaluation of the Democratic Peace Proposition. Canadian Journal of Political Science 31 (2):263–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosato, Sebastian. 2003. The Flawed Logic of Democratic Peace Theory. American Political Science Review 97 (4):585–602.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ross, Robert S. 2003. The 1995–96 Taiwan Strait Confrontation: Coercion, Credibility, and Use of Force. In The United States and Coercive Diplomacy, edited by Art, Robert J. and Cronin, Patrick M., 225–273. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace.Google Scholar
Sartori, Anne E. 2005. Deterrence by Diplomacy. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Schelling, Thomas C. 1960. The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Schelling, Thomas C. 1966. Arms and Influence. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 1998. Domestic Opposition and Signaling in International Crises. American Political Science Review 92 (4):829–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 1999. Do Democratic Institutions Constrain or Inform? Contrasting Two Institutional Perspectives on Democracy and War. International Organization 53 (2):233–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 2001. Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sechser, Todd S. 2010. Goliath's Curse: Coercive Threats and Asymmetric Power. International Organization 64 (4):627–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sechser, Todd S. 2011. Militarized Compellent Threats, 1918–2001. Conflict Management and Peace Science 28 (4):377–401.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slantchev, Branislav L. 2006. Politicians, the Media, and Domestic Audience Costs. International Studies Quarterly 50 (2):445–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, Alastair. 1998. International Crises and Domestic Politics. American Political Science Review 92 (3):623–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Snyder, Jack, and Borghard, Erica. 2011. The Cost of Empty Threats: A Penny, Not a Pound. American Political Science Review 105 (3):437–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sullivan, Patricia Lynne, and Gartner, Scott Sigmund. 2006. Disaggregating Peace: Domestic Politics and Dispute Outcomes. International Interactions 32 (1):1–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Swanson, John C. 2001. The Remnants of the Habsburg Monarchy: The Shaping of Modern Austria and Hungary, 1918–1922. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Tarar, Ahmer, and Leventoğlu, Bahar. 2009. Public Commitment in Crisis Bargaining. International Studies Quarterly 53 (3):817–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tomz, Michael. 2007. Domestic Audience Costs in International Relations: An Experimental Approach. International Organization 61 (4):821–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tomz, Michael, and Weeks, Jessica. 2009. MIDipedia: An Expanded Database of Militarized Interstate Disputes. Unpublished manuscript, Stanford University, Stanford, Calif./Cornell University, Ithaca, NY.Google Scholar
Trachtenberg, Marc. 1980. Reparation in World Politics. New York: Columbia University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Trachtenberg, Marc. 2012. Audience Costs: An Historical Analysis. Security Studies 21 (1):3–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Trager, Robert F., and Vavreck, Lynn. 2011. The Political Costs of Crisis Bargaining: Presidential Rhetoric and the Role of Party. American Journal of Political Science 55 (3):526–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vanhanen, Tatu. 2000. A New Dataset for Measuring Democracy, 1810–1998. Journal of Peace Research 37 (2):251–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weeks, Jessica L. 2008. Autocratic Audience Costs: Regime Type and Signaling Resolve. International Organization 62 (1):35–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weiss, Jessica Chen. Forthcoming. Autocratic Signaling and Nationalist Protest in China. International Organization.Google Scholar