Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-r6qrq Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-25T14:17:32.469Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Goliath's Curse: Coercive Threats and Asymmetric Power

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 October 2010

Todd S. Sechser
Todd S. Sechser
Affiliation:
University of Virginia, Charlottesville. E-mail: tsechser@virginia.edu
Get access

Abstract

States typically issue compellent threats against considerably weaker adversaries, yet their threats often fail. Why? Expanding on a standard model of international crisis bargaining, I argue that a theory of reputation-building can help shed light on this puzzle. The model casts reputation as a strategic problem, showing that challengers issuing compellent threats have incentives to anticipate the reputation costs that target states incur when appeasing aggressors. If challengers can recognize these costs and offset them with side payments or smaller demands, then even reputation-conscious targets will acquiesce. I argue, however, that military strength contributes to information problems that make challengers more likely to underestimate their targets' reputation costs and insufficiently compensate them. In this way, military power can undermine the effectiveness of compellent threats. The logic is illustrated by the 1939 Russo-Finnish crisis, and the argument's implications for the study of coercive diplomacy are explored.

Type
Research Article
Information
International Organization , Volume 64 , Issue 4 , October 2010 , pp. 627 - 660
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2010

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Albertini, Luigi. 1953. Origins of the War of 1914, 2, The Crisis of July 1914 from the Sarajevo Outrage to the Austro-Hungarian General Mobilization. Edited and translated by Massey, Isabella M.. London: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Alt, James E., Calvert, Randall L., and Humes, Brian D.. 1988. Reputation and Hegemonic Stability: A Game-Theoretic Analysis. American Political Science Review 82 (2):445–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arreguìn-Toft, Ivan. 2005. How the Weak Win Wars: A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Art, Robert J., and Cronin, Patrick M.. 2003. The United States and Coercive Diplomacy. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace.Google Scholar
Axelrod, Robert. 1984. The Evolution of Cooperation. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Biddle, Stephen. 1996. Victory Misunderstood: What the Gulf War Tells Us About the Future of Conflict. International Security 21 (2):139–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Biddle, Stephen. 2004. Military Power: Explaining Victory and Defeat in Modern Battle. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blainey, Geoffrey. 1973. The Causes of War. London: Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blechman, Barry M., and Kaplan, Stephen S.. 1978. Force Without War: U.S. Armed Forces as a Political Instrument. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
Blücher, Wipert von. 1951. Gesandter Zwischen Diktatur und Demokratie: Erinnerungen aus den Jahren 1935–1944. Wiesbaden, Germany: Limes.Google Scholar
Brooks, Stephen G., and Wohlforth, William C.. 2008. World Out of Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Cable, James. 1994. Gunboat Diplomacy, 1919–1991: Political Applications of Limited Naval Force. 3d ed.New York: St. Martin's.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carr, William. 1991. The Origins of the Wars of German Unification. New York: Longman.Google Scholar
Chuev, Felix. 1993. Molotov Remembers: Inside Kremlin Politics. Chicago: Ivan R. Dee.Google Scholar
Clare, Joe, and Danilovic, Vesna. 2010. Multiple Audiences and Reputation Building in International Conflicts. Journal of Conflict Resolution (forthcoming).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crescenzi, Mark J. C., Kathman, Jacob D., and Long, Stephen B.. 2007. Reputation, History, and War. Journal of Peace Research 44 (6):651–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dallin, David J. 1942. Soviet Russia's Foreign Policy, 1939–1942. Translated by Dennen, Leon. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Danilovic, Vesna. 2001. The Sources of Threat Credibility in Extended Deterrence. Journal of Conflict Resolution 45 (3):341–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Danilovic, Vesna. 2002. When the Stakes Are High: Deterrence and Conflict Among Major Powers. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Documents on German Foreign Policy, Series D, VIII: The War Years, September 4, 1939–March 18, 1940. 1949. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
Ellsberg, Daniel. 1968. The Theory and Practice of Blackmail. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1992. Threats to Use Force: Costly Signals and Bargaining in International Crises. Ph.D. diss., University of California, Berkeley.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1995. Rationalist Explanations for War. International Organization 49 (3):379–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1997a. Bargaining over Objects That Influence Future Bargaining Power. Paper presented at the 93rd Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, August, Washington, D.C.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1997b. Signaling Foreign Policy Interests: Tying Hands Versus Sinking Costs. Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (1):68–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1998. Bargaining, Enforcement, and International Cooperation. International Organization 52 (2):269–305.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Filson, Darren, and Werner, Suzanne. 2002. A Bargaining Model of War and Peace: Anticipating the Onset, Duration, and Outcome of War. American Journal of Political Science 46 (4):819–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fordham, Benjamin O. 2004. A Very Sharp Sword: The Influence of Military Capabilities on American Decisions to Use Force. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (5):632–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gartzke, Erik. 1999. War Is in the Error Term. International Organization 53 (3):567–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
George, Alexander L., and Simons, William E.. 1994. The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy. 2d ed.Boulder, Colo.: Westview.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. 2004. A Revised List of Wars Between and Within Independent States, 1816–2002. International Interactions 30 (3):231–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hopf, Ted. 1995. Peripheral Visons: Deterrence Theory and American Foreign Policy in the Third World, 1965–1990. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Howard, Michael. 1961. The Franco-Prussian War: The German Invasion of France, 1870–1871. New York: Dorset.Google Scholar
Huth, Paul K. 1988. Extended Deterrence and the Prevention of War. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huth, Paul K. 1997. Reputations and Deterrence: A Theoretical and Empirical Assessment. Security Studies 7 (1):72–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huth, Paul K., and Russett, Bruce. 1984. What Makes Deterrence Work? Cases from 1900 to 1980. World Politics 36 (4):496–526.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jakobson, Max. 1961. The Diplomacy of the Winter War: An Account of the Russo-Finnish Conflict, 1939–1940. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Jakobson, Max. 1987. Finland: Myth and Reality. Helsinki, Finland: Otava.Google Scholar
Joffe, Josef. 1999. A Peacenik Goes to War. New York Times Magazine, 30 May: 30–33.Google Scholar
Karnow, Stanley. 1983. Vietnam: A History. New York: Viking.Google Scholar
Kreps, David M., and Wilson, Robert. 1982. Reputation and Imperfect Information. Journal of Economic Theory 27 (2):253–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kulkov, E. N., Rzheshevsky, O. A., and Shukman, Harold. 2002. Stalin and the Soviet-Finnish War, 1939–1940. London: Frank Cass.Google Scholar
Kydd, Andrew. 2005. Trust and Mistrust in International Relations. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lauren, Paul Gordon. 1972. Ultimata and Coercive Diplomacy. International Studies Quarterly 16 (2):131–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lukacs, John. 1992. Finland Vindicated. Foreign Affairs 71 (4):50–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mack, Andrew. 1975. Why Big Nations Lose Small Wars: The Politics of Asymmetric Conflict. World Politics 27 (2):175–200.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mannerheim, Carl Gustav Emil. 1954. The Memoirs of Marshal Mannerheim. Translated by Lewenhaupt, Count Eric. New York: Dutton.Google Scholar
McQuarrie, Christopher. 1995. The Usual Suspects. Directed by Bryan Singer. Los Angeles: Blue Parrot Productions and Bad Hat Harry Productions.Google Scholar
Mearsheimer, John J. 1983. Conventional Deterrence. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Mercer, Jonathan. 1996. Reputation and International Politics. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Milgrom, Paul, and Roberts, John. 1982. Predation, Reputation, and Entry Deterrence. Journal of Economic Theory 27 (2):280–312.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nalebuff, Barry. 1991. Rational Deterrence in an Imperfect World. World Politics 43 (3):313–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nevakivi, Jukka. 1976. The Appeal That Was Never Made: The Allies, Scandinavia, and the Finnish Winter War, 1939–1940. Montreal, Canada: McGill-Queen's University Press.Google Scholar
Organski, A. F. K. 1958. World Politics. New York: Knopf.Google Scholar
Paasikivi, Juho K. 1958. President J. K. Paasikivis Minnen, 1939–1940. Stockholm, Sweden: Bonnier.Google Scholar
Pelc, Krzysztof J. 2010. Constraining Coercion? Legitimacy and Its Role in U.S. Trade Policy, 1975–2000. International Organization 64 (1):65–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Posen, Barry R. 1996. Military Responses to Refugee Disasters. International Security 21 (1):72–111.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, Robert. 1999. In the Shadow of Power: States and Strategies in International Politics. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, Robert. 2006. War as a Commitment Problem. International Organization 60 (1):169–203.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Press, Daryl G. 2005. Calculating Credibility: How Leaders Assess Military Threats. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Reed, William. 2003. Information, Power, and War. American Political Science Review 97 (4):633–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reiter, Dan. 1995. Exploding the Powder Keg Myth: Preemptive Wars Almost Never Happen. International Security 20 (2):5–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reiter, Dan. 2009. How Wars End. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reiter, Dan, and Stam, Allan C.. 2002. Democracies at War. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sartori, Anne E. 2002. The Might of the Pen: A Reputational Theory of Communication in International Disputes. International Organization 56 (1):121–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sartori, Anne E. 2005. Deterrence by Diplomacy. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Schelling, Thomas C. 1960. The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Schelling, Thomas C. 1966. Arms and Influence. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 2001. Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sechser, Todd S. 2009. Military Power and the Effectiveness of Coercive Threats: An Empirical Analysis. Paper presented at the 105th Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, September, Toronto.Google Scholar
Selten, Reinhard. 1978. The Chain Store Paradox. Theory and Decision 9 (2):127–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Singer, J. David, Bremer, Stuart A., and Stuckey, John. 1972. Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War. In Peace, War, and Numbers, edited by Russett, Bruce M., 19–48. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage.Google Scholar
Slantchev, Branislav L. 2003. The Principle of Convergence in Wartime Negotiations. American Political Science Review 97 (4):621–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, Alastair, and Stam, Allan C.. 2004. Bargaining and the Nature of War. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (6):783–813.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, James D. D. 1995. Stopping Wars: Defining the Obstacles to Cease-Fire. Boulder, Colo.: Westview.Google Scholar
Snyder, Glenn H., and Diesing, Paul. 1977. Conflict Among Nations: Bargaining, Decision Making, and System Structure in International Crises. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Spring, Derek W. 1986. The Soviet Decision for War Against Finland, 30 November 1939. Soviet Studies 38 (2):207–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tanner, Väinö. 1957. The Winter War: Finland Against Russia, 1939–1940. Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Tillotson, H. M. 1993. Finland at Peace and War, 1918–1993. Dorset, England: Michael Russell.Google Scholar
Treisman, Daniel. 2004. Rational Appeasement. International Organization 58 (2):345–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Upton, Anthony F. 1974. Finland, 1939–1940. London: Davis-Poynter.Google Scholar
Van Dyke, Carl. 1997. The Soviet Invasion of Finland, 1939–1940. London: Frank Cass.Google Scholar
Van Evera, Stephen. 1999. Causes of War: Power and the Roots of Conflict. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Vehviläinen, Olli. 2002. Finland in the Second World War: Between Germany and Russia. Translated by McAlester, Gerard. New York: Palgrave.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wagner, R. Harrison. 1992. Rationality and Misperception in Deterrence Theory. Journal of Theoretical Politics 4 (2):115–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wagner, R. Harrison. 1994. Peace, War, and the Balance of Power. American Political Science Review 88 (3):593–607.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walter, Barbara F. 2009. Reputation and Civil War: Why Separatist Conflicts Are So Violent. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wawro, Geoffrey. 2003. The Franco-Prussian War: The German Conquest of France in 1870–1871. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wittman, Donald. 1979. How a War Ends: A Rational Model Approach. Journal of Conflict Resolution 23 (4):743–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Woodward, E. L., and Butler, Rohan. 1953. Documents on British Foreign Policy, 1919–1939. Third Series, Vol. VI. London: Her Majesty's Stationery Office.Google Scholar
Wuorinen, John H. 1965. A History of Finland. New York: Columbia University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar