Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-gtxcr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-23T18:40:56.670Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Dirty Pool

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 July 2003

Get access

Abstract

International relations scholars make frequent use of pooled cross-sectional regression in which N dyads over T time points are combined to create NT observations. Unless special conditions are met, these regressions produce biased estimates of regression coefficients and their standard errors. A survey of recent publications in international relations shows little attention to this issue. Using data from the period 1951–92, we examine the consequences of pooling for models of militarized disputes and bilateral trade. When pooled models are reestimated to allow for stable but unobserved differences among dyads, the results are altered in fundamental ways.

Type
Symposium
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2001

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Amemiya, Takeshi. 1985. Advanced Theory of Econometrics. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Anderson, James E. 1979. A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation. American Economic Review 69 (1):106–16.Google Scholar
Apodaca, Clair, and Stohl, Michael. 1999. United States Human Rights Policy and Foreign Assistance. International Studies Quarterly 43 (1): 185–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Auvinen, Juha. 1997. Political Conflict in Less Developed Countries 1981–1989. Journal of Peace Research 34 (2): 177–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baltagi, Badi H. 1995. Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. Chichester: John Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
Barbieri, Katherine. 1996. Economic Interdependence: A Path to Peace or a Source of Interstate Conflict? Journal of Peace Research 33 (1):2949.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel, and Jackman, Simon. 1998. Beyond Linearity by Default: Generalized Additive Models. American Journal of Political Science 42 (2):596627.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel, and Katz, Jonathan N.. 1995. What to Do (and Not to Do) with Time-Series-Cross-Section Data. American Political Science Review 89 (3):634–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel, and Tucker, Richard. 1997. Conflict in Time and Space. Weatherhead Center for International Affairs Working Paper No. 97–8. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University. Available at <http://wwwc.cc.columbia.edu/sec/dlc/ciao/wps/tur01/>. Accessed July 1999.Google Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel, Katz, Jonathan, and Tucker, Richard. 1998. Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable. American Journal of Political Science 42 (4):1260–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bennett, D. Scott. 1996. Security, Bargaining, and the End of Interstate Rivalry. International Studies Quarterly 40 (2): 157–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bennett, D. Scott. 1997. Democracy, Regime Change, and Rivalry Termination. International Interactions 22 (4):369–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Benson, Michelle, and Kugler, Jacek. 1998. Power Parity, Democracy, and the Severity of Internal Violence. Journal of Conflict Resolution 42 (2):196209.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. 1985. The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence. Review of Economics and Statistics 67 (3):474–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernhard, William, and Leblang, David. 1999. Democratic Institutions and Exchange-Rate Commitments. International Organization 53 (1):7197.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blanton, Shannon Lindsey. 1999. Instruments of Security or Tools of Repression? Arms Imports and Human Rights Conditions in Developing Countries. Journal of Peace Research 36 (2):233–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bliss, Harry, and Russett, Bruce. 1998. Democratic Trading Partners: The Liberal Connection, 1962–1989. The Journal of Politics 60 (4):1126–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bremer, Stuart. 1996. Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816–1992. Version 2.1. Available at ⟨http://pss.la.psu.edu/MID_DATA.HTM⟩. Accessed June 1997.Google Scholar
Chamberlain, Gary. 1984. Panel Data. In Handbook of Econometrics, edited by Griliches, Zvi and Intriligator, Michael, 1247–318. Amsterdam: North-Holland.Google Scholar
Clark, William Roberts, and Reichert, Usha Nair, with Lomas, Sandra Lynn and Parker, Kevin L.. 1998. International and Domestic Constraints on Political Business Cycles in OECD Countries. International Organization 52 (1):87120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dassel, Kurt, and Reinhardt, Eric. 1999. Domestic Strife and Initiation of Violence at Home and Abroad. American Journal of Political Science 43 (1):5685.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Deardorff, Alan V. 1984. Testing Trade Theories and Predicting Trade Flows. In Handbook of International Economics, edited by Jones, Ronald W. and Kenen, Peter B., 467517. Amsterdam: North-Holland.Google Scholar
Diehl, Paul F., Reifschneider, Jennifer, and Hensel, Paul R.. 1996. United Nations Intervention and Recurring Conflict. International Organization 50 (4):683700.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Enterline, Andrew J. 1998. Regime Changes and Interstate Conflict, 1816–1992. Political Research Quarterly 51 (2):385409.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Farber, Henry S., and Gowa, Joanne. 1997. Common Interests or Common Polities? Reinterpreting the Democratic Peace. The Journal of Politics 59 (2):393417.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gartzke, Erik. 1998. Kant We All Just Get Along? Opportunity, Willingness, and the Origins of the Democratic Peace. American Journal of Political Science 42 (1):127.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gowa, Joanne, and Mansfield, Edward D.. 1993. Power Politics and International Trade. American Political Science Review 87 (2):408–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Greene, William H. 1997. Econometric Analysis. 3d ed. Upper Saddle River, N.J.: Prentice Hall.Google Scholar
Griliches, Zvi, and Hausman, Jerry A.. 1986. Errors in Variables in Panel Data. Journal of Econometrics 31 (1):93118.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hall, Peter A., and Franzese, Robert J. Jr 1998. Mixed Signals: Central Bank Independence, Coordinated Wage Bargaining, and European Monetary Union. International Organization 52 (3):505–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hausman, J. A. 1978. Specification Tests in Econometrics. Econometrica 46 (6): 1251–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hausman, Jerry A., and Taylor, W. E.. 1981. Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects. Econometrica 49 (6):1377–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Henderson, Errol Anthony. 1997. Culture or Contiguity: Ethnic Conflict, the Similarity of States, and the Onset of War, 1820–1989. Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (5):649–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Henderson, Errol Anthony. 1998. The Democratic Peace Through the Lens of Culture, 1820–1989. International Studies Quarterly 42 (3):461–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heston, Alan, and Summers, Robert. 1991. The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950–88. Quarterly Journal of Economics 106 (2):327–68.Google Scholar
Hodgson, Geoffrey. 1996. An Evolutionary Theory of Long-Term Economic Growth. International Studies Quarterly 40 (3):391410.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hsiao, Cheng. 1986. Analysis of Panel Data. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Huber, Evelyne, Ragin, Charles, and Stephens, John D.. 1993. Social-Democracy, Christian Democracy, Constitutional Structure, and the Welfare-State. American Journal of Sociology 99 (3):711–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huth, Paul K. 1996. Enduring Rivalries and Territorial Disputes, 1950–1990. Conflict Management and Peace Science 15 (1):741.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iversen, Torben. 1998. Wage Bargaining, Central Bank Independence, and the Real Effects of Money. International Organization 52 (3):469504.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jackman, Simon. 1999. In and Out of War and Peace: The Statistical Analysis of Discrete Serial Data on International Conflict. Unpublished manuscript, Stanford University, Stanford, Calif.Google Scholar
Jaggers, Keith, and Gurr, Ted Robert. 1995. Tracking Democracy's Third Wave with the Polity III Data. Journal of Peace Research 32 (4):469–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnston, Jack, and DiNardo, John. 1997. Econometric Methods. 4th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Jones, Daniel M., Bremer, Stuart A., and Singer, J. David. 1996. Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816–1992: Rationale, Coding, and Empirical Patterns. Conflict Management and Peace Science 15 (2):163213.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keith, Linda Camp. 1999. The United Nations International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights: Does It Make a Difference in Human Rights Behavior? Journal of Peace Research 36 (1):95118.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kim, Soo Yeon. 1998. Ties that Bind: The Role of Trade in International Conflict Processes, 1950–1992. Ph.D. diss., Yale University, New Haven, Conn.Google Scholar
King, Gary, and Zeng, Langche. Forthcoming. Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data. International Organization 55 (4).Google Scholar
Leamer, Edward, and Leonard, Herman. 1983. Reporting the Fragility of Regression Estimates. Review of Economics and Statistics 65 (2):306–17.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leamer, Edward E., and Stern, Robert M.. 1970. Quantitative International Economics. Boston: Allyn and Bacon.Google Scholar
Leblang, David A. 1996. Property, Democracy, and Economic Growth. Political Research Quarterly 49 (1):526.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leblang, David A. 1997. Domestic and Systemic Determinants of Capital Control in the Developed and Developing World. International Studies Quarterly 41 (3):435–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leeds, Brett Ashley, and Davis, David R.. 1997. Domestic Political Vulnerability and International Disputes. Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (6):814–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leeds, Brett Ashley, and Davis, David R.. 1999. Beneath the Surface: Regime Type and International Interaction, 1953–1978. Journal of Peace Research 36 (1):521.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lemke, Douglas, and Reed, William. 1998. Power Is Not Satisfaction: A Comment on De Soysa, Oneal, and Park. Journal of Conflict Resolution 42 (4):511–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lemke, Douglas, and Werner, Suzanne. 1996. Power Parity, Commitment to Change, and War. International Studies Quarterly 40 (2):235–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lieberson, Stanley. 1985. Making It Count: The Improvement of Social Research and Theory. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Linnemann, Hans. 1966. An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows. Amsterdam: North-Holland.Google Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D., and Bronson, Rachel. 1997. Alliances, Preferential Trading Arrangements, and International Trade. American Political Science Review 91 (1):94107.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D., and Snyder, Jack. 1997. A Tale of Two Democratic Peace Critiques: A Reply to Thompson and Tucker. Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (3):457–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meernik, James, Krueger, Eric L., and Poe, Steven C.. 1998. Testing Models of U.S. Foreign Policy: Foreign Aid During and After the Cold War. The Journal of Politics 60 (1):6385.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Montgomery, Mark R., Richards, Toni, and Braun, Henry I.. 1986. Child Health, Breast-Feeding, and Survival in Malaysia: A Random-Effects Logit Approach. Journal of the American Statistical Association 81 (394):297309.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Morrow, James D., Siverson, Randolph M., and Tabares, Tressa E.. 1998. The Political Determinants of International Trade: The Major Powers, 1907–90. American Political Science Review 92 (3):649–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mousseau, Michael. 1997. Democracy and Militarized Interstate Collaboration. Journal of Peace Research 34 (1):7387.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Noland, Marcus. 1997. Chasing Phantoms: The Political Economy of USTR. International Organization 51 (3):365–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oneal, John R., and Ray, James Lee. 1997. New Tests of the Democratic Peace: Controlling for Economic Interdependence, 1950–1985. Political Research Quarterly 50 (4):751–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oneal, John R., and Russett, Bruce. 1997. The Classical Liberals Were Right: Democracy, Interdependence, and Conflict, 1950–1985. International Studies Quarterly 41 (2):267–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oneal, John R., Oneal, Frances H., Maoz, Zeev. and Russett, Bruce. 1996. The Liberal Peace: Interdependence, Democracy, and International Conflict, 1950–85. Journal of Peace Research 33 (1):1128.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pendergast, Jane F., Gange, Stephen J., Newton, Michael A., Lindstrom, Mary J., Palta, Mari, and Fisher, Marian R.. 1996. A Survey of Methods for Analyzing Clustered Binary Response Data. International Statistical Review 64 (1):89118.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Perry, Robert L., and Robertson, John D.. 1998. Political Markets, Bond Markets, and the Effects of Uncertainty: A Cross-national Analysis. International Studies Quarterly 42 (1): 131–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Poe, Steven C., Tate, C. Neal, and Keith, Linda Camp. 1999. Repression of the Human Right to Personal Integrity Revisited: A Global Cross-National Study Covering the Years 1976–1993. International Studies Quarterly 43 (2):291313.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ragin, Charles C. 1987. The Comparative Method: Moving Beyond Qualitative and Quantitative Strategies. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Raknerud, Arvid, and Hegre, Håvard. 1997. The Hazard of War: Reassessing Evidence of the Democratic Peace. Journal of Peace Research 34 (4): 385404.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Remmer, Karen L. 1998. Does Democracy Promote Interstate Cooperation? Lessons from the Mercosur Region. International Studies Quarterly 42 (1):2542.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Russett, Bruce. 1978. The Marginal Utility of Income Transfers to the Third World. International Organization 32 (4): 913–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Russett, Bruce, Oneal, John R., and Davis, David R.. 1998. The Third Leg of the Kantian Tripod for Peace: International Organizations and Militarized Disputes, 1950–1985. International Organization 52 (3):441–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Signorino, Curtis A. 1999. Strategic Interaction and the Statistical Analysis of International Conflict. American Political Science Review 93 (2):279–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Simmons, Beth A. 1996. Rulers of the Game: Central Bank Independence During the Interwar Years. International Organization 50 (3):407–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Singer, J. David. 1990. Models, Methods, and Progress in World Politics: A Peace Research Odyssey. Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press.Google Scholar
Stimson, James A. 1985. Regression in Space and Time: A Statistical Essay. American Journal of Political Science 29 (4):914–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thompson, William R., and Tucker, Richard. 1997a. A Tale of Two Democratic Peace Critiques. Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (3):428–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thompson, William R., and Tucker, Richard. 1997b. Bewitched, Bothered, and Bewildered: A Reply to Farber and Gowa and to Mansfield and Snyder. Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (3):462–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tinbergen, Jan. 1962. Shaping the World Economy. New York: Twentieth Century Fund.Google Scholar
Tir, Jaroslav, and Diehl, Paul F.. 1998. Demographic Pressure and Interstate Conflict: Linking Population Growth and Density to Militarized Disputes and Wars, 1930–89. Journal of Peace Research 35 (3):319–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wang, T. Y. 1999. U.S. Foreign Aid and UN Voting: An Analysis of Important Issues. International Studies Quarterly 43 (1):199210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ward, Michael D., and Gleditsch, Kristian S.. 1998. Democratizing for Peace. American Political Science Review 92 (1):5161.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zahariadis, Nikolaos. 1997. Why State Subsidies? Evidence from European Community Countries, 1981–1986. International Studies Quarterly 41 (2):341–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar