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Long-Term Economic Hardship and Non-Mainstream Voting in Canada

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 August 2005

Andrea M.L. Perrella
Andrea M.L. Perrella
Affiliation:
Université de Montréal
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Abstract

Abstract. Canadian voting behaviour from 1979 to 2000 is examined by relating long-term economic changes to support for “non-mainstream” parties, defined as parties other than the Liberals or Progressive Conservatives. This long-term perspective is unique, in that standard economic voting research focuses mostly on how short-term economic changes affect support levels for the incumbent. In order to illustrate the effects of long-term economic decline, federal voting results are related with short- and long-term economic data, namely unemployment and labour-force participation rates, all aggregated at the provincial level. The pooled data produces results that confirm the relevance of short-term changes to explain support for the incumbent party, while support for non-mainstream parties is, instead, explained by long-term economic changes.

Résumé. Cet article examine le comportement électoral des Canadiens de 1979 à 2000 en reliant les changements économiques à long terme à l'appui accordé aux partis “ non dominants ”, à savoir les partis autres que les libéraux et les conservateurs. Cette perspective à long terme est unique en son genre car les recherches standard sur le vote économique étudient surtout le retentissement des changements économiques à court terme sur l'appui au parti sortant. Pour illustrer les effets du déclin économique à long terme, nous avons relié les résultats des élections fédérales aux données économiques à court et à long terme, notamment les taux de chômage et de participation de la population active, calculés à l'échelon provincial. Les données agrégées donnent des résultats qui confirment la pertinence des changements à court terme pour expliquer l'appui au parti sortant, tandis que le soutien aux partis “ non dominants ” s'explique au contraire par les changements économiques à long terme.

Type
Research Article
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 38 , Issue 2 , June 2005 , pp. 335 - 357
Copyright
© 2005 Cambridge University Press

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